Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires

El final de la dictadura de Maduro se aproxima

El final de la dictadura de Nicolás Maduro se aproxima; no lo afirmo desde el deseo, es solo una constatación de lo que ya se puede entrever. No es posible afirmar la fecha exacta de la caída del régimen, pero en un tiempo —no demasiado lejano— esa dictadura fenecerá. Son varias las sólidas razones que permiten advertir ese destino, ya no pueden los usurpadores del poder de Venezuela mantener semejante apropiación indebida ante el mundo. La realidad se les cayó encima como el muro de Berlín se desplomó de un día para el otro ante la mirada atónita de todos los que no creíamos que aquello fuera posible algún día.

Los cleptócratas venezolanos ya no cuentan con legitimidad social alguna y la ciudadanía de ese país advierte que el presidente Juan Guaidó es el representante del sentido común, de las elecciones libres y de una asamblea que lo invistió como lo que es: el presidente interino para un tiempo de reapertura democrática. No pretende más que eso de él y tampoco menos.

Resulta menoscabante cuando algunos periodistas califican al presidente Juan Guaidó como el “presidente autoproclamado” y a Maduro como el “presidente”. Lo mismo sucedió durante décadas con Fidel Castro, quien fuera un dictador con cierta ideología de izquierda (hoy caduca), pero al que se le dispensaba un trato que no le correspondía. No sé si se le temía, se le admiraba o ambas cosas a la vez, pero hasta los más demócratas sucumbían ante su “carisma”. Penoso. Por cierto, lo mismo sucedió con otros dictadores de Latinoamérica (militares), solo que ahora casi nadie recuerda aquellos recorridos patéticos y nadie muestra las fotos donde los aplaudieron en su momento. (Los dictadores de derecha tienen menos marketing pero son exactamente el mismo cáncer descalificatorio para la democracia. Ya lo deberíamos haber aprendido de memoria).

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Siempre me ha parecido un mérito de la izquierda-política la forma de defender a los que consideran “de ellos”, con postura jacobina y a tambor batiente, y todavía me sigue impresionando cómo los liberales-republicanos permiten esos desbordes. ¿Tienen vergüenza, temor o no están convencidos de sí mismos?

Lo que es claro es que Nicolás Maduro no creyó que varios jugadores de primeras ligas en la región lo correrían hasta el último minuto, o pensó que se cansarían y lo dejarían en paz. Creyó que Luis Almagro desde la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA) bajaría los brazos y solo ha logrado que el secretario general de esa organización sea un antagonista libertario que no claudica ni un solo día en su pretensión por redemocratizar Venezuela. Lo propio pensó con Estados Unidos, a quien le propuso todo tipo de acuerdos “non sanctos”, y el gobierno de Donald Trump —de manera sorpresiva— se puso firme y no afloja un centímetro en su convicción de cambio político dentro de Venezuela, replegando el argumento intervencionista para no habilitar griteríos burdos de la dictadura. (Todos los que creían que el petróleo mandaba habrán advertido cómo se equivocaron con la región).

El presidente de Colombia, Iván Duque, quizás una pieza clave en todo este armado democratizador, ha sido un actor comprometido con la causa de Venezuela, siendo un presidente valiente, con sentido común, que tampoco deja de levantar su voz firme en estos menesteres. Claro, tiene la frontera enloquecida y no solo actúa por buena fe, sino porque la convivencia pacífica necesita paz sea como sea. Ellos, más el Grupo de Lima, y buena parte del mundo libre europeo son una espada lacerante que a diario aguijonea una dictadura inmoral que está dispuesta a todo con tal de resistir.

La realidad, en rigor, no viene por aquí: la realidad es que en Venezuela la ciudadanía se muere de hambre, nadie sabe cómo salir del infierno de los apagones (¿habrá más?), la ausencia de alimentos, poca agua y la falta de todo tipo de medicamentos. Allí todas estas lecturas geopolíticas y estratégicas sucumben ante un plato de comida. Esa es la evidencia fáctica que los reporteros de donde sean advierten y le narran al mundo. Esa es la realidad: un país que clama por hambre y libertad. Duele, causa impresión y todos los que tenemos amigos allí sabemos de lo que hablamos.

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Es seguro que muchos lectores pensarán que pueden existir diversas interpretaciones sobre los intereses que poseen los actores que aspiran a que Nicolás Maduro caiga. En los hechos poco importan las intenciones sino que se juzgan los hechos (en política internacional). Y para que exista democracia, el genial Giovanni Sartori solía mofarse de los politólogos (perdidos en sus laberintos intelectuales) cuando debatían (a la francesa) argumentando que “por lo menos debe haber elecciones libres”, luego vendrá todo lo demás. Y “elecciones libres” para el venezolano de a pie es sinónimo de democracia, de cambio de régimen, de alternancia y de fin de la era bolivariana. Quieren sacarse a los bolivarianos de arriba pero todavía les temen a más de 250 mil hombres armados. Esa es la verdad. La variable de ajuste son esos personas que tienen buena parte del destino de Venezuela en sus manos. Si ellos cambian de parecer, Venezuela será otra.

Es cierto, Venezuela tiene, como informó la semana pasada el New York Times, el apoyo de Rusia que está jugando a la nueva Guerra Fría con Estados Unidos y de paso le sirve asustar son “sirianizar” la zona (en los hechos el país es una Siria sin guerra, lo que es demencial si se presta atención a su diáspora). Rusia y China juegan su partido también allí, más comercial que otra cosa, por eso el conflicto, de alguna forma, ya los tiene involucrados. Lo que no deja de ser otro eje de complicación para que vuelva la democracia como la entendemos los occidentales. (¿No debería existir un diálogo entre Estados Unidos y Rusia a puertas cerradas?).

Venezuela sabe, a esta altura, que las elecciones no serán mágicas, que un país devastado por la narcocorrupción no se levanta de un día para el otro, pero sabe también que sin ese momento no podrán venir horas de nacimiento de un proyecto de reconstrucción nacional, con convergencia patriótica en políticas de Estado básicas, y con una dirección y un apoyo voluminoso de la comunidad internacional.

No llegan horas sencillas para los venezolanos, son horas, días de extrema preocupación donde la sangre no debería manchar los anhelos de un pueblo. Nicolás Maduro y su banda narcodelincuencial ya están sentenciados, lo sabe él, lo sabemos todos, es más, nadie sabe quién lo traicionará de los suyos, y nadie sabe si esa traición no es extrema y no termina con su vida. Entiendo que pocos gustan de escribir estos asuntos, pero seamos francos, están en el manual de las posibilidades reales. Y también está en la hoja de ruta hablar de algún grado de amnistía. Nada es descartable si el precio es la democracia. Luego se verá cómo se sigue.

¿Asilo en algún país como Rusia o China para algunos de los usurpadores? Pudiera ser, igual el brazo de la Corte Penal Internacional algún día los alcanzará. El mundo es otro desde que sabemos que los delitos de lesa humanidad son imprescriptibles y se los corretea de por vida. Sí, lo sé bien, mucho criminal político anda suelto y no existe la Justicia que querríamos ver en el mundo con demasiados autócratas y corruptos en el poder en diversos países. (No hablemos de África). Y en algunos casos, el poder de algunos países es tan enorme que aunque todos sabemos lo que son, y lo que hacen, nadie osaría levantar un dedo acusatorio contra ellos porque sería como nadar en un río de aguas turbulentas. No seamos cínicos.

Nicolás Maduro pretende emular el modelo cubano, lo que no entiende es que ese modelo contó —muchas veces— con una enorme torpeza norteamericana, con el hecho de ser una isla, y con la Unión de Repúblicas Socialistas Soviéticas (URSS) por detrás sosteniendo un foco geopolítico que auspiciaba y sostenía. Hoy Rusia no es la URSS y China plantea todo de forma mercantil, por ello no van a poner todas las fichas de apoyatura en un territorio que saben que no les corresponde incidir. Correrían un riesgo de dimensiones poco previsibles con el Gobierno de Donald Trump, que si algo tiene de evidente es que no es previsible. Si yo fuera Rusia, principalmente Rusia, no tensionaría la cuerda porque las respuestas bien podrían estar en otro ámbito y le costaría caro a todos en el planeta. Sentido común puro. Ojalá que exista.

El autor es abogado, escritor y analista político. Ex presidente de la Cámara de Diputados de Uruguay.

Fuente: https://www.infobae.com/opinion/2019/03/17/el-final-de-la-dictadura-de-maduro-se-aproxima/

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